つのドリル1on1 持ち物考察

気になったので確率計算して調べました(計算ミスはないはず、多分)

※技はつのドリルのみで、つのドリルのPPは8で、悪あがきまでは考慮しない

スカーフvs空振り保険

スカーフ側の勝率 : 0.500396

=0.3+0.49*0.21+0.49^{2}*0.21+0.49^{3}*0.21+0.49^{4}*0.21+0.49^{5}*0.21+0.49^{6}*0.21+0.49^{7}*0.21

空振り保険側の勝率 : 0.49628

=0.21+0.49*0.3+0.49^{2}*0.3+0.49^{3}*0.3+0.49^{4}*0.3+0.49^{5}*0.3+0.49^{6}*0.3+0.49^{7}*0.3

スカーフvs先制の爪

スカーフ側の勝率 : 0.551104

=0.282+0.49*0.282+0.49^{2}*0.282+0.49^{3}*0.282+0.49^{4}*0.282+0.49^{5}*0.282+0.49^{6}*0.282+0.49^{7}*0.282

先制の爪側の勝率 : 0.445573

=0.228+0.49*0.228+0.49^{2}*0.228+0.49^{3}*0.228+0.49^{4}*0.228+0.49^{5}*0.228+0.49^{6}*0.228+0.49^{7}*0.228

スカーフvs気合の鉢巻

スカーフ側の勝率 : 0.50953

=0.24+0.532*0.24+0.532^{2}*0.24+0.532^{3}*0.24+0.532^{4}*0.24+0.532^{5}*0.24+0.532^{6}*0.24+0.532^{7}*0.24

気合の鉢巻側の勝率 : 0.484054

=0.228+0.532*0.228+0.532^{2}*0.228+0.532^{3}*0.228+0.532^{4}*0.228+0.532^{5}*0.228+0.532^{6}*0.228+0.532^{7}*0.228

スカーフvs気合の襷

スカーフ側の勝率 : 0.234707

=0.3*0.7*0.3+2*0.3*0.7*0.7^{2}*0.3+3*0.3*0.7^{2}*0.7^{3}*0.3+4*0.3*0.7^{3}*0.7^{4}*0.3+5*0.3*0.7^{4}*0.7^{5}*0.3+6*0.3*0.7^{5}*0.7^{6}*0.3+7*0.3*0.7^{6}*0.7^{7}*0.3

気合の襷側の勝率 : 0.750575

=0.3+(1-0.3^{2})*0.7*0.3+(1-2*0.3^{2}*0.7-0.3^{2})*0.7^{2}*0.3+(1-3*0.3^{2}*0.7^{2}-2*0.3^{2}*0.7-0.3^{2})*0.7^{3}*0.3+(1-4*0.3^{2}*0.7^{3}-3*0.3^{2}*0.7^{2}-2*0.3^{2}*0.7-0.3^{2})*0.7^{4}*0.3+(1-5*0.3^{2}*0.7^{4}-4*0.3^{2}*0.7^{3}-3*0.3^{2}*0.7^{2}-2*0.3^{2}*0.7-0.3^{2})*0.7^{5}*0.3+(1-6*0.3^{2}*0.7^{5}-5*0.3^{2}*0.7^{4}-4*0.3^{2}*0.7^{3}-3*0.3^{2}*0.7^{2}-2*0.3^{2}*0.7-0.3^{2})*0.7^{6}*0.3+(1-7*0.3^{2}*0.7^{6}-6*0.3^{2}*0.7^{5}-5*0.3^{2}*0.7^{4}-4*0.3^{2}*0.7^{3}-3*0.3^{2}*0.7^{2}-2*0.3^{2}*0.7-0.3^{2})*0.7^{7}*0.3

以上より

気合の襷>>スカーフ>空振り保険>気合の鉢巻>先制の爪

になると思います(他の確率計算するのが面倒になった)

気合の襷が使えるなら炎の体ギャロップが最強です